- 金正日の死は、隣国にとってではなく、北朝鮮にとっての危機
10. evan ramstad and jay solomon, “dictator’s death stokes fears”, the wall street journal, december 20, 2011.
- 報告書の英文を発見!!
-----(転載開始)----- investigation result on the sinkingof roks cheonan thu. 20 may, 2010 the joint civilian-military investigation group □ opening statement the joint civilian-military investigation group(jig) conducted its investigationwith 25 experts from 10 top korean expert agencies, 22 military experts, 3experts recommended by the national assembly, and 24 foreign expertsconstituting 4 support teams from the united states, australia, the united kingdomand the kingdom of sweden. the jig is composed of four teams--scientificinvestigation team, explosive analysis team, ship structure management team,and intelligence analysis team. in our statement today, we will provide the results attained by korean andforeign experts through an investigation and validation process undertaken with ascientific and objective approach. □the results obtained through an investigation and analysis of thedeformation of the hull recovered from the seabed and evidence collectedfrom the site of the incident are as follows: the jig assesses that a strong underwater explosion generated by the detonation of a homing torpedo below and to the left of the gas turbine room caused republic of korea ship(roks) cheonan to split apart and sink. □the basis of our assessment that the sinking was caused by a torpedoattack is as follows: ○ precise measurement and analysis of the damaged part of the hull indicates that 「a shockwave and bubble effect caused significant upward bending of thevk(center vertical keel), compared to its original state, and shell plate was steeplyent, with some parts of the ship fragmented. 「on the main deck, fracture occurred around the large openings used formaintenance of equipment in the gas turbine room and significant upward deformation isresent on the port side. also, the bulkhead of the gas turbine room was significantlyamaged and deformed. 「the bottoms of the stern and bow sections at the failure point were bent upward.this also proves that an underwater explosion took place. ○ through a thorough investigation of the inside and outside of the ship,we have found evidence of extreme pressure on the fin stabilizer, a mechanismto reduce significant rolling of the ship; water pressure and bubble effects on thebottom of the hull; and wires cut with no traces of heat. all these point to a strongshockwave and bubble effect causing the splitting and the sinking of the ship. ○ we have analyzed statements by survivors from the incident and a sentry onbaekryong-do. 「the survivors made a statement that they heard a near-simultaneous explosionnce or twice, and that water splashed on the face of a port-side lookout who fell fromhe impact; furthermore, 「a sentry on the shore of baekryong-do stated that he witnessed anpproximately 100-meter-high pillar of white flash for 2~3 seconds. theforementioned phenomenon is consistent with damage resulting from a shockwavend bubble effect. ○ regarding the medical examination on the deceased service members,no trace of fragmentation or burn injury were found, but fractures andacerations were observed. all of these are consistent with damage resulting from ahockwave and bubble effect. ○ the seismic and infrasound wave analysis result conducted by the koreainstitute of geoscience and mineral resources (kigam) is as follows: 「seismic wave intensity of 1.5 degrees was detected by 4 stations. 「2 infrasound waves with a 1.1-second interval were detected by 11 stations. 「the seismic and infrasound waves originated from an identical site of explosion. 「this phenomenon corresponds to a shock wave and bubble effect generated byn underwater explosion. ○ numerous simulations of an underwater explosion show that a detonation with anet explosive weight of 200~300kg occurred at a depth of about 6~9m,approximately 3m left of the center of the gas turbine room. ○ based on the analysis of tidal currents off baekryong-do, the jig determined thatthe currents would not prohibit a torpedo attack. ○ as for conclusive evidence that can corroborate the use of a torpedo, we havecollected propulsion parts, including propulsion motor with propellers and a steeringsection from the site of the sinking. the evidence matched in size and shape with the specifications on thedrawing presented in introductory materials provided to foreigncountries by north korea for export purposes. the marking in hangul, whichreads 1■(or no. 1 in english), found inside the end of the propulsion section, isconsistent with the marking of a previously obtained north korean torpedo. theabove evidence allowed the jig to confirm that the recovered parts were made innorth korea. ○ also, the aforementioned result confirmed that other possible causes for sinkingraised, including grounding, fatigue failure, mines, collision and internal explosion,played no part in the incident. □in conclusion, ○ the following sums up the opinions of korean and foreign experts on theconclusive evidence collected from the incident site; hull deformation; statements ofrelevant personnel; medical examination of the deceased service members; analysison seismic and infrasound waves; simulation of underwater explosion; and analysis oncurrents off baekryong-do and collected torpedo parts. ○ roks cheonan was split apart and sunk due to a shockwave and bubble effectproduced by an underwater torpedo explosion. ○ the explosion occurred approximately 3m left of the center of the gas turbineroom, at a depth of about 6~9m. ○ the weapon system used is confirmed to be a high explosive torpedo with a netexplosive weight of about 250kg, manufactured by north korea. □in addition, the findings of the multinational combined intelligence task force, comprised of 5 states including the us, australia, canada and the uk andoperating since may 4th, are as follows: ○ the north korean military is in possession of a fleet of about 70 submarines,comprised of approximately 20 romeo class submarines(1,800 tons), 40 sango classsubmarines(300 tons) and 10 midget submarines including the yeono class(130 tons). it also possesses torpedoes of various capabilities including straight running,acoustic and wake homing torpedoes with a net explosive weight of about 200 to300kg, which can deliver the same level of damage that was delivered to the rokscheonan. ○given the aforementioned findings combined with the operational environment inthe vicinity of the site of the incident, we assess that a small submarine is anunderwater weapon system that operates in these operational environmentconditions. we confirmed that a few small submarines and a mother ship supportingthem left a north korean naval base in the west sea 2-3 days prior to the attack andreturned to port 2-3 days after the attack. ○ furthermore, we confirmed that all submarines from neighboring countries wereeither in or near their respective home bases at the time of the incident. ○the torpedo parts recovered at the site of the explosion by a dredging ship onmay 15th, which include the 5x5 bladed contra-rotating propellers, propulsion motorand a steering section, perfectly match the schematics of the cht-02d torpedoincluded in introductory brochures provided to foreign countries by north korea forexport purposes. the markings in hangul, which reads 1■(or no. 1 in english),found inside the end of the propulsion section, is consistent with the marking of apreviously obtained north korean torpedo. russian and chinese torpedoes aremarked in their respective languages. the cht-02d torpedo manufactured by north korea utilizes acoustic/wake homingand passive acoustic tracking methods. it is a heavyweight torpedo with a diameter of21 inches, a weight of 1.7 tons and a net explosive weight of up to 250kg. ○based on all such relevant facts and classified analysis, we have reached the clear conclusion that roks cheonan was sunk as the result of an externalunderwater explosion caused by a torpedo made in north korea. the evidencepoints overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a northkorean submarine. there is no other plausible explanation. ----（転載終了）----- ※■はハングル文字で「番」を意味する
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