- This Guy Nails Why We Can't Nail Bubbles: Hindsight Fallacy
The very brilliant Duncan Watts, formerly of Columbia University and Sante Fe Institute and now at Yahoo nails the cognitive bias of why we fail to predict bubbles and provides an original reason why hindsight fallacy is like a mystery novel. His newest book is Everything is Obvious: Once You Know The Answer. Here's an excerpt from his essay at Slate:
<blockquote>We all know, of course, that "hindsight is 20-20," but when we say this we're implying that our failure to predict the outcome resulted simply from not paying attention to relevant information. After a bubble has burst, that is, we can always find signs, and very often people, pointing out that it was a bubble; thus it always seems that investors could have known what was happening and just chose to ignore it. 以前はYahooで、現在コロンビア大学とサンタフェ研究所との非常に鮮やかなダンカンワッツは、我々はバブルを予測するために失敗する理由の認知バイアスを釘や後知恵の誤謬は、推理小説のようなものか元々の理由を提供します
- Should Business Fear Tim Wu's FTC Appointment?
“Silicon Valley has a new fear factor,” wrote the online Wall Street Journal on Tuesday after the announcement that Columbia Law Professor Tim Wu would join the Federal Trade Commission’s Office of Policy Planning. Starting Feb. 14, Wu will work in the FTC’s Office of Policy Planning, advising on long-range competition and consumer protection policy initiatives, according to a Columbia University press release. 。。u0026quot;シリコンバレーは、新しい不安要因を持っている。。u0026quot;コロンビア法学教授ティムウーは、政策企画の連邦取引委員会のオフィスに参加することを発表後、火曜日に購入するウォールストリートジャーナルを書きました
- The Story So Far: Will Sponsored Content and Creative Ads Save Digital Journalism?
The Story So Far: What We Know About the Business of Digital Journalism, a recent report by Bill Grueskin, Ava Seave, and Lucas Graves, for Columbia University’s Tow Center for Digital Journalism, opens with a description of the front wall of the waterfront office of the Miami Herald, a part of the building that is now half obscured by a massive billboard for Apple. The fact that an Apple billboard is currently the face of a legacy media company serves as an apt metaphor for the respective fates of digital and print media. In 2001 Apple and the Miami Herald’s parent company Knight-Ridder were both valued at just under $4 billion dollars. Flash forward to 2011, thanks to two recessions and an ongoing revolution in the media industry, and Apple is valued at more than $300 billion and Knight Ridder has ceased to operate as an independent company. No longer able to generate sufficient income from traditional advertising sales, The Miami Herald has found a way to take advantage of its expensive headquarters by turning it into a platform for advertising. During a recent panel discussion at Columbia’s Journalism School, the authors of The Story So Far explained that the traditional model where ads are placed next to content is dead, and that its time for media companies to redefine their relationships with advertisers.
It’s hard to ignore the fact that, as Columbia’s President Lee Bollinger, explained in his recent book that in “first decade of the 21st century as communication technology changes radically and the world becomes increasingly integrated” the media sector is “undergoing changes of a similar magnitude.” ファーソーストーリー：私たちは、デジタルジャーナリズムのコロンビア大学のトーセンターデジタルジャーナリズム、ビルGrueskin、アヴァSeave、とルーカスGravesの最近の報告書の事業について何を知って、ウォーターフロントの事務所の前壁の説明で開きますマイアミヘラルド、今の半分されている建物の一部のAppleのための大規模なビルで隠されてしまう
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